Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

Over the years, many writers have implied that statistics can provide almost any result that is convenient at the time. Of course, honest practitioners use statistics in an attempt to quantify the ...

The purpose of The Annals of Probability is to publish contributions to the theory of probability and statistics and their applications. The emphasis is on importance and interest; formal novelty and ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

Articulate the primary interpretations of probability theory and the role these interpretations play in Bayesian inference Use Bayesian inference to solve real-world statistics and data science ...

In my practice, I find most people involved with advanced analytics, such as predictive, data science, and ML, are familiar with the name Bayes, and can even reproduce the simple theorem below. Still, ...

Bayes factors comparing two or more competing hypotheses are often estimated by constructing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler to explore the joint space of the hypotheses. To obtain efficient ...